The Russia-Ukraine war has a direct effect on the international port system
The news of the week, which unfortunately we also have to deal with on the Buonefra blog, is that of the invasion of Ukraine by Putin's Russia. The causus belli would be the independence - or annexation - of the Donbass, declared by Putin on the eve of the invasion of Russian troops in Ukrainian territory.
The international implications of this matter, both commercially and economically, are enormous.
Here, however, we want to “limit ourselves” to the discourse linked to maritime and port trade, being - moreover - the Donbass area a strategic area also in this sense. Let's see why ...
The risks for port operators
The first real picture of the direct consequences of the war on maritime trade is taken by Dryad Global, an international global risk intelligence company.
The current picture sees the Sea of Azov blocked by Ukrainian forces, with the country's seaports suspended by order of the Ukrainian army.
Dryad Global specifically recommended to all commercial operators of "Avoid any transit or operation within the EEZ of Ukraine or Russia within the Black Sea".
The situation, which is in fact degenerating day by day, extends this alarm to the entire Black Sea area, paralyzing a very important rib of world maritime trade.
According to Dryad Global, the critical issues concern "Commercial uncertainty rather than crew safety risk", believing that Russia has no intention of targeting foreign ships with military attacks.
The suggestion to ships in Ukrainian ports remains that of "Try to leave immediately making sure to broadcast on AIS and clearly stating their intentions on VHF".
Mariupol in the viewfinder
But what are the strategic areas that Putin could point to in commercial and economic terms?
Although it is very difficult to predict Russia's real intentions after the conflict has just begun, Mariupol undoubtedly represents - with its port - a crucial hub (being the easternmost port of the conflict area). Mariupol is, moreover, a port directly connected with Italy for the inbound and outbound transport of a series of goods and materials of enormous importance.
The situation is different for Odessa, outside the Russian target but still deserted by the large shipping and maritime transport companies.
The consequences, which will be concretely perceived only in the coming weeks, are expected to be truly disastrous.
Could the European squeeze on Russia, with the tendency towards economic and commercial isolation, play an important role in the conflict? Soon to tell. But the port world, as well as the entire international economic panorama, remains - for now - at the window. Because the supply of Italy in terms of energy is also at stake.
